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Tuesday, Nov. 27,
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• •

Is a Carbon Tax a Done Deal for the US?

Written by Marin
Katusa
Date: 11-21-2012
Subject: Casey Research
Articles

We know Obamarama is going to tax the rich, but I bet many didn't
think he would weasel in the carbon tax as quickly as he is going to
now. A Romney win would have been bullish for coal producers in the
US – but Romney lost, and now so has coal, at least in the near
term. The biggest winner from Obamarama? Natural
gas.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is now supporting Obama in bringing a
carbon tax to the US.

Why would Exxon – and other big energy companies – join forces to
bring on the carbon tax?

The answer is simple: profits.

Exxon has made significant purchases, buying unconventional North
American gas companies. For example, it recent bought Canadian firm
Celtic Exploration for over C$2.5 billion. Let's not forget that a
couple of years back, Exxon bought out XTO Energy for over US$30
billion.

How much pull does Exxon have in Washington, DC? Exxon has one of
the largest lobbying groups on Capitol Hill. And how ironic: Exxon
is also one of the largest holdings for all of the US Congress
members. Exxon has always had clout in Washington and always will.
Exxon is one of the former Rockefeller oil companies... one that has
now positioned itself as one of the dominant unconventional North
American companies.

How does a carbon tax benefit Exxon? Natural gas and coal race
neck-and-neck when it comes to electricity generation in the United
States. By increasing the cost to produce coal, natural gas becomes
more attractive for utilities. This means a better bottom line for
Exxon… and a fatter paycheck for its executives.

But why unconventional natural gas in the United States?

First off, it's hard for a company as large as Exxon to find
deposits that will move the needle on its production meter.
Unfortunately for Exxon, most of the world-class deposits that it is
looking for are in regions where US companies like it have lost
their advantage. For example, in Russia and former USSR states,
Exxon has to now play by Putin's rules, which could change at any
minute.

South America has also proven to be very dangerous for American
companies. Chevron has just had US$18 billion worth of assets seized
in Argentina. Before that, Chávez in Venezuela taught Shell and
Exxon about doing business in Venezuela. Nationalization drives also
followed in Bolivia and Ecuador. All this means is that there are
fewer places companies like Exxon can go to make a consistent return
on an investment without insane political risk.

Obama isn't dumb; he knows that just taxing the rich won't be
enough to fill the deficit gap in the United States. A carbon tax
would help both financially as well as politically: Obama would look
like a hero standing up to the "dirty polluters," as well as bring
in another US$100 billion in revenues.

Coal, both metallurgical as well as thermal, is already
suffering: metallurgical coal prices are down because of lower
demand in Europe and Asia, while thermal coal is down because of
pricing pressure from natural gas and the success of shale gas. A
carbon tax would be a knockout blow to the thermal-coal industry in
the United States.

With the backing of Exxon, expect Obama to not only bring in a
carbon tax, but to do it a lot quicker than anyone has expected –
and he will be viewed as a hero by many for doing it.

Is your portfolio positioned to benefit from this coming change?
It had better be. If not, you can learn how to get it in shape – and
also get in on the energy super-bull that's
forming.

Send Letter to
Editor

• •

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